Intelligence integrity
Trust
A serious intelligence system is open about what it knows and what it does not. This page tracks the evidence base — claims, sources, confidence, review status and the gaps still to be closed.
29
Claims
16
Sources
4
Need sourcing
10
Sources to verify
Amazon — flagship case coverage
15
Amazon claims
7
Amazon sources
4
Need sourcing
10
Data gaps
The Amazon rainforest stores large amounts of carbon, supporting climate regulation.Needs source
The Amazon rainforest provides habitat for a very large share of terrestrial biodiversity.Needs source
Weakening rainfall regulation may create risks for agriculture and water systems.Needs source
Amazon ecosystem degradation can create cascading risks across ecological and human systems.Draft
Claims by confidence
High6
Medium21
Low2
Uncertain0
Claims by review status
Verified5
Reviewed20
Needs source3
Draft1
Nodes needing stronger sourcing (4)
The Amazon rainforest stores large amounts of carbon, supporting climate regulation.Amazon RainforestNeeds source
The Amazon rainforest provides habitat for a very large share of terrestrial biodiversity.Amazon RainforestNeeds source
Weakening rainfall regulation may create risks for agriculture and water systems.Rainfall RegulationNeeds source
Amazon ecosystem degradation can create cascading risks across ecological and human systems.Amazon RainforestDraft
Relationships needing stronger evidence (4)
The food system depends in part on pollination through crop production.DEP_FOOD_POLLINATION
Pollinator decline can weaken the pollination that crops rely on.DEP_FOOD_POLLINATION
Rainfall regulation supports regional agriculture and water availability.DEP_AGRI_RAINFALL
Weakening rainfall regulation may create risks for agriculture and water systems.DEP_AGRI_RAINFALL
Known data gaps (17)
- — Estimates vary widely between regions and surveys.
- — Relative contribution varies by crop and region.
- — Forage availability not yet mapped by region.
- — Relative weight of each driver remains uncertain.
- — Exact share depends on crop mix and measurement method.
- — Quantitative dependency strength not yet modelled.
- — Field and laboratory effect sizes differ.
- — Specific carbon-stock sources still to be itemised.
- — Strength of the effect varies regionally.
- — Quantitative dependency strength not yet modelled.
- — Fire, climate and deforestation interactions are complex.
- — Outcomes vary by territory and governance context.
- — Extent and mercury impacts not fully mapped.
- — Outcomes depend on method, scale and time.
- — Attribution by commodity is partial.
- — Thresholds and regional variation not yet quantified.
- — Cascade magnitudes are illustrative, not yet quantified.